Losing Streaks

Losing Streaks

So far this year I’ve read 8 books and am currently finishing up my 9th.

For me, I read to learn. I read to de-stress. And I read open up my mind to new ideas and new perspectives.

And so far this year, I’ve read some solid books.

But none of them have been great.

On the other hand, last year, I read something like 21 books and 4 of them were absolutely phenomenal.

Heck even some of the books that I rated as “Bs” like The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel were still phenomenal!

But this year, I just can’t seem to pick the right book.

I can’t seem to break out of this streak of solid books. But I want that great book!

Life is streaky

I guess life is funny like that. Sometimes life is just streaky.

When you win you win, when you lose you lose.

And that is how the market feels this year too.

We are streaking down. We can’t win.

Our portfolios are ALL down.

There is a completely and unnecessary war in Ukraine. And now we are now heading into an election cycle with more negativity and back and forth than any of us would like.

Dang, we are on a down streak!

But Streaks Never Last

But even the longest losing streaks come to an end (just ask the 1961 Philadelphia Phillies, the Chicago Cardinals, or the Sacramento Kings who hold the longest road game losing streak).

Since the great depression, the US Stock Market has only been down for consecutive years three total times:

The S&P was down three consecutive years twice: 1939 to 1941, and 2000 to 2002.

It was down two consecutive years only once: 1973 and 1974.”

A reason for hope: Back-to-back down years for the stock market are rare

It has rarely ever down in back-to-back years, which is probably why we all struggle with any down years at all!

As Ben Carlson says, “you don’t earn returns on your money without accepting some risk“. This latest streak is simply that risk in action.

But the facts are that even when we have a down year, or two, or even three years in a row…the market always goes back up. Always.

All Streaks Come to an End

If you focus only on the bad news, or really any news, you are bound to get all worked up and spit out with the negativity.

But life isn’t all negative. It simply ebbs and flows.

Life is streaky!

My current reading streak will end. I’ll eventually pick a book that is phenomenal and wows me.

The stock market will bounce back sooner rather than later.

So I don’t know when this streak will come to an end. But I know that it will.

Because that is what streaks do: they end.

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